Wind energy is key to renewable electrical generation. Green energy transformation plans all feature wind energy alongside solar and hydro as a key electrical generator. The rollout of wind energy is proving difficult. Expectations for results are likely to be missed. This piece is part of series of backgrounds on why wind energy is hard.
EkaLore has previously looked at wind turbine manufacturers and the structure of the global market. The manufacturers are faced with common problems globally. Taken together these factors will make expectations hard to accomplish.
Grid attachment and integration is proving expensive. Energy storage systems’ costs for installations capable of protecting wind energy value are needed in billions yet.
Grid integration in Germany (offshore), China (isolation), and North America (geography) has been more difficult than getting the wind turbines installed and electrical generation started.
Wind energy is key to renewable electrical generation. Green energy transformation plans all feature wind energy alongside solar and hydro as a key electrical generator. The rollout of wind energy is proving difficult. Expectations for results are likely to be missed. This piece is part of series of backgrounds on why wind energy is hard.
EkaLore has previously looked at wind turbine manufacturers and the structure of the global market. The manufacturers are faced with common problems globally. Taken together these factors will make expectations hard to accomplish.
Legal, regulatory, and social pressures (Not-in-my-back-yard examples abound) cost money and slow projects
Permitting reform is a priority for green energy transformation projects in many jurisdictions. The EU permitting time for on/off-shore wind projects has been estimated at four years (ETC). In Australia local states have permitting timelines estimated at two years (Queensland example).
In Germany a backlog of 15000 onshore wind permits is to be resolved. German permits for moving the towers, generators, and blades are even more costly. Estimates place the number of permits needed for movement per turbine at 150 with each permit running to Euro1000. 100-120 permits are required to move the erection/maintenance cranes cross-country also at a cost up to Euro 1000. A single blade (if transported separately) could require an additional 60 permits also at a cost up to Euro 1000. (VDMA)
In the USA, a 2022 estimate (Brookings) had only 21% of all planned wind projects under construction with the balance awaiting permitting or financing. An additional 20 state or regional regulatory schemes require environmental analysis for all projects on top of Federal regulatory filings. Federal regulatory filings, depending on the proposed project, may require an additional 20 filings and approvals. Each filing currently has the potential for separate timelines with most not having defined regulatory response requirements – thus leaving the project at the mercy of Federal resources and priorities.
A 2Q2023 leasing auction in the Gulf of Mexico only yielded two bidders indicating the investors’ appetite for off-shore wind at scale was low and not attractive under the auctions terms.
For more analysis and notes on Alien Invaders to the global energy markets see http://www.ekalore.com
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