Alien Sighting: BYD Goes Global Faster - Background

BYD is the largest EV/NEV manufacturer in China.

BYD has provided only general guidance on 2023 volume unit sales expansion is predicted for 2023 and beyond. In 2022, sales of EV/NEV’s in China reached 1863494 units with a split between BEV and Hybrids/PHEV. For 2023 a general unit volume of at least 3M units with a high stretch goal of 3.6M units has been described by the CEO. The forecast volumes were split between 2.8M vehicles in the Chinese market and up to 800000 in export markets (a 300000 nominal number). This is an ambitious goal as 2022 saw only 50021 export units delivered. The 2023 January-February period saw unit sales in China at a runrate of 1.9M for the year. March EV/NEV sales accelerated to 207080 (run rate for 2.5M units/year). European export sales are still low at a February-March run rate of only 180000 per year.

BYD product platforms are competitive in China making BYD the largest selling manufacturer by run-rate in 1Q2023. The newly announced Ocean-Series Brand vehicle, the ‘Seagull’ is priced, in China, as low as USD$11,450 with a 30 or 38 KWH LFP-battery pack range of 300 and 400km (190-250 miles) (Chinese standardized testing). The ATTO3, Han, and Tang models are already sold in Europe with the Dolphin and Seal coming in 2H2023.

A traditional complaint against Chinese vehicles by European manufacturers has been blunted by the EU safety tester NCAP giving the ATTO3 its highest 5-Star rating. The new Seagull brand has 4 airbags and blade-LFP batteries. (Not yet NCAP tested.) Other Chinese manufacturers invading the European market have also received this rating level for safety (Great Wall Motor Coffee and ORA Funky Cat). For context, Renault’s Dacia brand builds the small Spring EV in China and only receives a one-star NCAP safety rating (and required re-engineering to pass NCAP expectations). The Spring EV was the second largest selling EV import into the European marketplace in 2022.

Competition in China for the low-cost EV/NEV (and mini-sized) market is intense. A primary competitor to the Seagull is the “Bingo” minicar from the Joint Venture GM-SIAC (Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp.)-Wuling Motors Holdings Ltd. These vehicles are targeted to a Chinese-first-buyer, with the Bingo only having a 2.56 m wheelbase and 17.3 KWH battery entry-point. The JV’s earlier Wuling Hongguang Mini EV has sold 1.11M units since it was introduced in July 2020. 2022 sales were up 30% at 554067 vehicles. The Chery (192208 vehicles) Changan (165563 vehicles) brands sold well for a combined 30% of the Chinese Mini-EV/NEV marketspace.

BYD has agreements for components and subsystems from major suppliers. For global markets BYD has chosen to use Apple Carplay and Android Auto for customer interface options. 4G OTA communications updating is in place. The April 2023 announcement of an enhanced cooperation (started in 2021) with Horizon Robotics gives them access to sensors and compute technologies for the Chinese marketplace. The March 2023 announcement of enhanced cooperation with nVidia will apply the nVidia Drive Orin compute and vehicle platforms to BYD product lines. BYD and nVidia specifically called out providing for continuing software-defined services as a reason to select the Drive Orin platform.

The Alien Invasion continues.

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