The news seems easy – India bans imports of devices to help build employment. The details and actual benefits may not match policy planning.
India bans imports of compute devices without a license. Make In India will be helped by this ban. Consumers and computer buyers may not be happy with higher prices and less choice. Dynamic India’s high-tech global businesses may see harms without access to the latest devices and servers.
Key assumptions behind the ban:
Markets for compute devices in India will continue trends to gain spend, as a proportion of the economy, for years to come.
“Make In India” will create a significant gain in employment and factory capacity that will be sustained.
India will sustain growth using Government decisions when special licenses are needed to bypass the ban.
India will be capable of creating indigenous manufacturing replacing imports.
Global competition won’t take advantage of banned devices to reduce India’s competitive position before India’s production restores its competitive position.
In context, India does not produce the high end semiconductors products (CPU, GPU, AI, memory, storage, interface, etc.) needed. Now, the imported products (equivalents) will all be subject to, at minimum, the outright ban, a thicket of governmental paperwork, or, at least, a substantial schedule delay. This implies the desired outcomes sought by the Government are more nuanced results across the country’s enterprises.
In this short series EkaLore will look at the likely results of the Indian Government ban policy.
For additional analysis and notes on a Dynamic India please see http://www.ekalore.com/india-business
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