This is the third post in an EkaLore-authored series on Dynamic India’s opportunity to employ the thousands of H1-Bs who may be forced to return to India. We believe it represents a unique opportunity to jumpstart tech initiatives and to build up domestic development opportunities. See our last post here
This analysis will focus on USA landscape conditions with an understanding of workforce and global conditions being similar. There are unique conditions in the USA market that illustrate similar pressures occurring in many other markets. EkaLore looks at the landscape in the unique market conditions in Silicon Valley, understanding these similar pressures in many global enterprises and locations.
The USA visa and work permits include a category “H-1B,” allowing foreign citizens to work in the United States for three years, extensible to 6 years, using applications, typically from a large employer, in professional and technical talent positions. The best estimate is for 600-650,000 workers in the USA in early 2022 (583,420 in FY 09/30/2019). From past numbers, Indian nationals comprise about 70-75% of these workers (FY 2019-74.5%, FY 2021-74.1% Indian origin, FY 2019-11.8%, FY 2021-12.4% China). In 2021 the Computer-Related positions were 68.8%, with advanced technology positions at another 17.6%, totaling 86.4% of all positions. FY 2021 compensation averaged USD$108,000. Our “Back Of The Envelope” calculations show these positions are 25-30% lower than the average compensation/expense costs at a colossal tech employer. The value to Indians is likely USD$52.65B (out of a global enterprise base approximated at USD$190B-200B in 2023).
The very large population of Indian nationals, often employed by Indian tech enterprises under contract to global colossal tech enterprises, is vulnerable to workforce reductions. Indian tech enterprises acting as contractors, and Indians working directly for USA enterprises, are likely less than 10% of total USA workforce in the tech sector. It is unknown how many H-1B and Indian nationals are affected though the likely numbers run into the tens of thousands. USA firms are not obligated to announce reductions in the workforces of contractors publicly, so no reliable data is known. The reductions affecting specific Indian enterprises (Tata (TCS), Wipro, Cognizant, HCL, Tech Mahindra, etc.) are also unclear. Reductions by USA firms in Indian workforces are also a portion of global talent reductions and are unclear. Large reductions, totaling towards 100,000 from peaks, are likely as Challenging Times drive further reductions by tech enterprises and talent buyers.
EkaLore has more to say on the topic. Look for more Dynamic India pieces at www.ekalore.com/india-business
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