A Dream of Green Transformation for Electricity
Success and failure come with the Green Transformation. There is no question that climate actions require big projects. The doing will have failures while moving economies, lifestyles, and technology. This note is a look at a Green Transformation project failing to meet its promises and what lessons we can learn.
The Muskrat Falls Generating Station in Labrador, has cost CAD$13.4B so far and the project is still trying to deliver on 2010 promises for electricity generation for Labrador, Newfoundland, and Nova Scotia, Canada. The goals were:
98% carbon-free green power for use in the Provinces,
96M tons of emissions would be avoided by 2065 with 600000 tons of CO2 per year being eliminated
The economic, climate, and environmental benefits of building the new hydroelectric plant appeared to be clear in 2012 when funding of CAD$7.4B with the Provinces was agreed.
Evolving advantages were seen:
The Holyrood oil-fired plant (490MW) could be retired (15-25% average demand, 30% peak of total demand; 18,000 barrels of oil per day at peak; CAD$135M++ in 2011). Oil was projected to stay above CAD$100 per barrel.
Export power to the USA, or other provinces, would bring significant money into the utility (USD$0.20-0.30 per KWH with 32-40% of capacity available for decades for sale)
Nova Scotia would see CAD$0.125 KWH electricity for up to 20% of generated capacity in 2017 averaging about CAD$0.150 KWH thru 2051 with additional capacity available at then market rates estimated at CAD$0.05-0.09 KWH.
Wind power costs were just under CAD$0.10 KWH in 2013
Local rate payers would see monthly (2017 CAD$) increases from CAD$200 to CAD$208 in 2025 (CAD$227 if unbuilt), and to CAD$235 in 2040 (CAD$313 if unbuilt)
Local rates for electricity ranged from CAD$0.039 to CAD$0.126 per KWH and had increased 32% over a 10-year period
In the dreams were successes - this was not to be..
In EkaLore’s next piece in the series we’ll see the lessons from Muskrat falls and then a piece on how the failures affect up to 50000000 people.
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