EkaLore tracks companies that we consider “Alien Invaders.”These are companies that break the rules, seemingly come out of nowhere to dominate the market’s attention, and capture the majority of the profit. On the cusp of Tesla’s Q3 earning's announcement, we wanted to share a little insight about just how well Tesla is doing against the classic German brands.
Tesla now has the single highest selling passenger car model sold in the German car market space. According to published reports (Heisse Online on KBA reported statistics). the Tesla Model Y sold 9,846 and the Tesla Model 3 3,878 out of 224,916 vehicles of which 44,389 were SUV-class.
The registrations in Germany were achieved against a production plan reaching 1,000 vehicles per week during 3Q 2022, 2,000 vehicles per week by 4Q 2022, and reaching for 3,000 vehicles per week by 1Q 2023. In comparison, the Tesla Shanghai GigaFactory produces upwards of 3,000 vehicles per day. Employment in the plant had added a second shift in May 2022 and a third shift is planned for December 2022. Media reports pointed to 5,000 staff in August 2022.
A large volume of Chinese production has been for export (using Chinese batteries, 70% CATL and 30% LGES) including the EU market space. The Tesla Model Ys built in Germany use BYD ‘flat pack’ batteries with LFP-chemistry and LGES 2170-type batteries imported from China. Likely Tesla’s original plans to use USA batteries at German startup have been changed by supply issues. Tesla has applied to build 4,680 batteries in Germany with production capability still in development. EU EV battery production is still ramping production.
In 2014 BMW was cheered by news the BMW Model i3 sold faster than Tesla models in the USA market space. Fast forward to September 2022. BMW only sold 16,440 vehicles and Audi 17,068 (with Mercedes selling 20,065, Toyota 7,020, and Porsche 2,415). By comparison, the BMW Model i3 (benefiting from German green tax consideration) has only sold about 1,000 units by pre-order in Germany with 15,813 sold EU-wide in January-August 2022 (CarSalesBase). The BMW i3’s largest month’s sales in the EU were 3,774 in March 2022. The BMW ix3 (crossover size) vehicle sold 1,807 vehicles in August 2022 with 10,239 vehicles sold EU-wide in January-August 2022 (CarSalesBase). In comparison, the Tesla Model Y sold 53,913 and the Tesla Model 3 sold 43,717 vehicles in January-August 2022.
The Tesla models are previously generally not eligible for German green tax consideration.
BMW did not consider Tesla a competitor. In 2019, the CEO said, “There is no real newcomer.” And in 2021, “Tesla isn’t quite part of the premium segment.” New competitive models from BMW are due in 2023. The market does not seem to share this view, as Tesla globally is likely to grow to about the size of BMW in 2023.
Our next post Alien Sighting – Tesla and the German Market can be found at www.ekalore.com/alien-invaders
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