In this release, EkaLore looks at some recent news in the context of our previous analysis and looks to likely further market conditions. (Find our earlier pieces here)
1) The regulatory requirement to support Indian domestically produced NavIC (GPS replacement)
2) Control of smartphone/smart device operating system major upgrades by requiring certification in Indian Government labs
3) Continued support of the Make In India Initiative to expand manufacturing (assembly at this point) in India.
4) Restrictions of business models and operations of some dominant players while allowing others in actions by the Government to enhance competition already being driven by consumes
The Indian Federal Government has several initiatives creating different interplay with foreign direct investment, industrial development, consumer protection, and global competition.
As an example of more than one initiative with a combined effect to push towards current Government goals, consider the introduction of possible requirements for NavIC capabilities on Indian marketplace smart devices:
Indian goals of a domestic semiconductor industry capable of participating in the domestic and global production of 5G equipment would be enhanced with additional production in India. The current positioning satellite chips in use from Qualcomm, MediaTek, and a few others support USA GPS, European Galileo, Japanese QDSS, Russian Glonass, and Chinese BeiDou. India seeks to assert requirements for support of local NavIC capability created at great expense by domestic ISRO.
Global semiconductor and smart device manufacturers aren’t excited about supporting another specific positioning radio signal. Investing in NavIC would materially add to the costs of already complex chipsets, add another layer of specialized firmware, and not materially add to Indian revenues and margins.
Complications go beyond simply manufacturing new chipsets. The Indian NavIC system operates on radio band L5, not the L1 frequency bands used by USA GPS. The Indian NavIC band could be operational on L1 frequency bands if additional satellite design, development, and orbital placement were performed. On the most optimistic schedule, these launches and operations could not be in place until late 2024 or 2025. India does not have a low-cost satellite launch capability like that used by SpaceX and some newer emerging global competitors. This implies that significant additional costs would fall on the Government to cooperatively enforce a mandate for NavIC semiconductor design and usage in device chipsets.
Dominant smartphone suppliers Samsung, and Xiaomi, along with other Android-based devices, would likely be compelled to add tracking and location features accessible by Indian governmental organizations.
There has been very little market acceptance of NavIC, created as part of the government's justification for ISRO development activities. The marketplace has not seen a need for NavIC even though the constellation was substantially operational with launches by 2016. Military, defense, and prestige considerations are not driving Indian consumers to adopt NavIC devices nor for manufacturers to bring compliant devices to the marketplace.
Our next post will explore the regulatory processes that India seeks to put in place to review domestically produced mobile devices. You will find it and other pieces on Dynamic India at www.ekalore.com/india-business
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