Last in EkaLore's series on failure in the Muskrat River project for a green energy transformation.
The rewards of big green energy projects (and the political rewards for accomplishing a big project with spending and jobs) means more projects like Muskrat Falls will be tried. The lessons for enterprises, governments, builders, and the public are important. The costs of failures for big green energy transformation projects are larger than anyone involved wants to suffer -- and it will happen again.
In 2023 problems limit the generation and use of power from Muskrat Falls:
Control software for the Labrador-Island Link electrical transmission equipment causes a loss of reliability and failures limiting the transmission when running to about 50% of rated capacity. Testing was conducted past the routine operation of 300MW transmitted to Labrador. The test of the two links failed with each carrying 450MW and a fail-over to 700MW on a one of two links in overload. Tests can only be run during cold weather in October/November or March/April. If not completed soon the wait will be at least until next winter.
Unreliability requires keeping Holyrood (oil) and Hardwoods (50MW natural gas turbine generators) running as base-load backup stations at high costs and high emissions. Holyrood was originally going to be shut down in 2021 a few years after Muskrat Falls came online. 2023 Consumption of oil for Holyrood was planned at 1M barrels per year with operations now planned thru 2030. In 2021 delivered oil costs were running CAD$200M per year. Additional base load capacity will cost CAD$520M at Bay d’Espoir hydro-electric generating station to distribute capacity.
Control and management software for the Maritime Link submarine transmission cable has seen reliability problems.
The control software suite for the transmission line operation and management is now more than 3 years late from scheduled completion.
The reliability of the synchronous condensers used to couple the power transmission to the grid has been poor and delayed dependable operation of supply linkages. Mechanical vibration and oil-bearing problems have been worked on since 2020 with persistent problems.
Mechanical support guyed wires supporting power transmission lines have encountered multiple mechanical failures causing one or both of the links to fail on the Labrador-Island Link. The turnbuckles used to tension the mechanical supports connecting transmission lines to towers have snapped and caused transmission lines to fall to the ground stopping electrical transmission. The turnbuckle connectors are used on about 5% of all towers on the 1100 km (685 mile) route.
Transmission line breaks due to mechanical failures required two weeks for a contractor to clear snow, fallen trees, and other problems on a 72 km (45 mile) road to access the towers with line breaks.
Heavy icing on transmission lines hanging from towers is being cleared with a 200 kg (440 lb) wooden pole dangled from a helicopter weather permitting.
Residential costs for electricity are climbing to CAD$0.147 KWH after subsidies for some households. Hydro’s projections show an increase (2023 CAD) to CAD$0.19 by 2032.
The green-energy climate transition will need to migrate 40000 homes to new power supplies other than oil/thermal. In 2012 there were 633000 vehicles in Labrador Newfoundland Province (by 2021 the population increased 4% to 521,758). In 2021 there were 190 electric vehicles and 33 public chargers in the Province with 12 to be added by 2022. This transition could require 1800MW of additional electrical generating capacity almost doubling 2022 levels when complete.
Electrical generation capacity purchases have changed since the Muskrat Falls plant was approved.
Costs per KWH for purchased utility hydroelectric power plants were USD$1,342/KWH of capacity in Ontario in 2018. A typical 2019 construction cost for a 100 GW plant was costing USD$5,320/KW. At the end of 2022, estimated costs (Ontario) for solar capacity was CAD$1600 KW and wind capacity was CAD$2000 KW.
Hydroelectric generation costs per KWH were USD$0.04681 in North American plants in the late 2010’s. By the start of 2023 estimated costs for Canadian solar electricity was CAD$0.09 KWH and wind electricity was CAD$0.05 KWH.
North American experience sees about 85% availability for hydroelectric generators in summer
Muskrat Falls is a green energy project with lessons for everyone. Is anyone paying attention so the same mistakes aren't repeated in the future?
This is the end of EkaLore’s series on the Muskrat Falls projects for now. Please get in touch if you’re interested in our sources and analysis. EkaLore works with highly complex projects to get to rewards for our enterprise clients.
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