The last This Means War post, talked about Roscosmos pulling back on a major launch for OneWeb. This post looks at other implications of the loss of Soyuz launch availability at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.
Keys to this incident:
Enterprises may need to choose between the marketspace they are in and doing business with competitors
Enterprises, where technologies used and subsidized for national prestige are subject to political and governmental actions, may fail
Systems engineering where everything was done “right” may still fail due to selection criteria reflecting vulnerable choices
OneWeb has publicly announced that it is considering US, Japan, and Indian launchers as alternatives to its continuing discussions with Arianespace to fulfill its existing contracts. In accordance with sanctions Arianespace has also suspended all work with its Russian-French joint venture Starsem for all other commercial Soyuz launches including CSG Guiana. 10 additional EU, South Korean, and Japanese launches contracted to use Russian launchers are in question.
OneWeb’s alternatives are limited. Chinese launch capabilities are not usable by OneWeb due to US space regulations. India only launches about 2 vehicles per year. Arianespace has already committed all of the Ariane 5 launchers remaining to be built. Ariane 6, Japan Mitsubishi Heavy Industries H3, US ULA Vulcan, and US Blue Origin New Glenn are not yet fully operational.
Space-X’s StarLink is a direct competitor to OneWeb’s satellite communications offering. OneWeb may be reluctant to buy services from Space-X. Launchers from other, newer US rocket builders, are likely to be more expensive for the multiple launches of the 220, 260kg, OneWeb satellites yet to be launched.
An additional risk for OneWeb is possible availability problems with the satellite thrusters manufactured by Russian OKB “Fakel”. These thrusters are integral to the Airbus’ Florida-plant-manufactured satellites and it isn’t clear if the remaining ~84 OneWeb satellites’ parts are already delivered to Airbus. Any further dealings with a Russian manufacturer are likely subject to US, EU, and UK sanctions.
The next post in the “This Means War” series talks about what an Act of War when it comes to cyberattacks means when it comes to space.
Read this and other series entries at www.ekalore.com/ars
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