Pfizer vs. Moderna et. al
This is the third in a series of posts about using superior expertise to blunt the effects of an Alien Invasion. EkaLore considers Moderna to be the Alien and Pfizer the incumbent market player. We review the results of Moderna entering the COVID-19 marketplace, how Pfizer, the incumbent fared and summarized what happened to other major market players.
The COVID-19 marketplace is dynamic. This post is written as of November 23, 2021.
Moderna and Pfizer Results
The industry incumbent, Pfizer, out sold the invader, Moderna, though Moderna did quite well. Pfizer projects Cominarity revenues of up to $36B in 2021 (double early 2021 guidance) and $29B in 2022. Pfizer splits global profits with BioNTech. Moderna projects up to $17-18B in 2022 up from $0 in 2019 and minor amounts in 2020. Moderna increased market cap 10x. Pfizer's market cap grew by 20%.
Pfizer will produce and sell about 2.3B doses in 2021. Moderna will produce and sell about 700-800M doses. In 2022 Pfizer is projecting 1.7B doses but will have production capacity for up to 4000M globally. Jabs thru 2021Q3 in the U.S., about 248M Pfizer doses, 159M Moderna, and 15M doses Janssen/Johnson & Johnson. Pfizer is the only EUA approved vaccine for the ~50M children under 17 need 2 doses.
P.S. Pfizer’s Covid treatment Paxlovid already has billions of dollars of orders although Merck’s Molupiravir (done with Alien Invader Ridgeback Biotherapeutics) has UK EUA approval. Both have generic-licensing in place that will drive billions of more doses in 2022.
What did the Alien Invader Moderna do:
Pivoted with an unproven technology to attack a totally new, uncertain, market
Used investment funds, government monies, and purchase commitments to fund an attack
Relied on newly constituted expertise and enterprise relationships to quickly enter the market
What were Pfizer’s countermeasures:
Accelerated a technology relationship in the same unproven technology to gain a global market position if it could be made to work
Redirected and risked substantial and material investment resources away from priorities to riskier yet more lucrative choices
Focused expertise, industry relationships, and greater internal capabilities to enter the market successfully
Competitors and other industry participants did not always succeed with their chosen strategies for technologies and investment. (Merck USA, Sanofi, Novartis, Novavax, Corevac) Tesla’s collaboration has not yet been an Alien Invader success.
Other Alien Invaders’ measures of success served slightly different market targets (J&J, AZ, SinoPharm, CanSino, Sputnik)
If you’re facing an Alien Invasion in your industry, or if you would like to mount an Alien Invasion of another marketplace, let’s talk. You can schedule a conversation with a senior analyst at www.ekalore.com/contact
You can find the first two posts of the series at -
https://www.ekalore.com/post/alien-invasion-counter-attack-pfizer-v-moderna
https://www.ekalore.com/post/winning-against-aliens-part-2
Comentários